Why the Dallas Cowboys will beat the Detroit Lions

Last week, I picked the Pittsburgh Steelers to beat the Dallas Cowboys in a blowout. As we all know, the game did not end like that as the Cowboys won 20-17 in a thriller that came down to the last minute.

Last week, the injuries to Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence and the problems that Justin Fields can present as a mobile quarterback made it seem as though the Pittsburgh Steelers were going to walk out of Acrisure Stadium with a Week 5 victory. But instead, things went in another direction.

With that being said, I am going to learn from my mistakes this week: The Dallas Cowboys will beat the Detroit Lions.

The Lions' offense is more than likely going to have a great performance in this game. Detroit ranks 7th in both rushing and passing yards per game this season and 3rd in all-purpose yards per game with an average of 397 yards a game. Detroit has many weapons on offense: from Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in the backfield to Amon-Ra St Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jameson Williams as pass catchers, Jared Goff has a lot to work with. And because he is such a prototypical pocket quarterback, the formula to beating a Jared Goff offense has always been to rush the passer. But with Micah Parsons, Demarcus Lawrence, and Marshawn Kneeland out, the Cowboys don't have an elite pass-rusher that can cause problems for Goff. Additionally, the Lions boast one of the premier offensive lines in the NFL, meaning Goff likely won't get hit with very much pressure by the Cowboys pass rush.

Things only get worse in the secondary. Trevon Diggs will play, but Caelen Carson and DaRon Bland will both miss this game. Dallas has their answer for St Brown, but 3rd string cornerback and former Detroit Lion Amari Oruwariye will start alongside Diggs and will likely be responsible for covering Jameson Williams for most of this game. A 3rd string corner starting against a team that went as far as the NFC championship game last season is not exactly an ideal situation.

The Bottom 10 run defense of the Dallas Cowboys has David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs to deal with this week. Montgomery ranks 6th among all eligible backs with 4 touchdowns on the season. Both Montgomery and Gibbs rank top-20 in rushing yards as well. A top 20 back is not the scariest thing in the world, but facing two top 20 backs who are splitting touches at the same time is a recipe for disaster for a run defense that allows an average of 135 rushing yards per game.

But the Cowboys win this game by sticking to the passing game. The Cowboys running game has been one of the worst in the NFL this season, and won't be very productive against the Lions. But Detroit allows the 6th most passing yards per game in the NFL this season with an average of 258.3 per game. Dak Prescott has the 3rd most passing yards in the NFL with 1,424 through the first 5 games. Nothing more needs to be said: there is an obvious hole in the secondary for Detroit, and the Cowboys are more than capable of exposing it and using it to come away with a win.

Expect a shootout with a lot of offense. Both defenses have their holes, and both offenses will find ways to exploit them. But a bottom 6 pass defense against (statistically) the third-best quarterback in the NFL is a perfect reason to pick the Dallas Cowboys to win this game and improve to 4-2 on the season.

Prediction: Cowboys 38, Lions 35.